The recent announcement of the "Brazil-United Kingdom Strategic Partnership 2026-2030" is neither an isolated event nor a twist of fate. It is the culmination of decades of a pendulum-like Argentine foreign policy, marked by a lack of substantive decisions and the failure to honor constitutional promises, which ultimately "normalized" the British colonial presence in the South Atlantic, to the point of transforming Argentina's main regional partner into the strategic ally of the usurper.

The legacy of inaction: The serpent's egg

Argentina's current vulnerability has deep roots. The central failing of the governments of Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was their lack of political will to dismantle, in a timely and constitutional manner through the National Congress, the agreements signed with Great Britain during the Menem administration (Madrid I and II). This omission left the door open for subsequent governments to further this surrender.

In 2016, the Foradori-Duncan agreement marked a significant setback by proposing the "removal of all obstacles that limit the economic growth and sustainable development of the Malvina Islands, including trade, fishing, navigation, and hydrocarbons." Under this framework, Great Britain not only consolidated its fishing exploitation but also advanced oil and mining exploration and the development of a multimodal port designed to compete directly with the Argentine Antarctic program.

Rosario's non-compliance and the continued delivery

The neglect continued under the government of Alberto Fernández . The commitment Fernández made to the government of Tierra del Fuego in August 2019 at the National University of Rosario, where he promised to:

“To denounce the so-called “Madrid Agreement I and II”, “Foradori-Duncan”, and other complementary agreements, which harm Argentine and Fuegian interests . ”

This non-compliance allowed the "pro-British chancellery of Buenos Aires" — under the libertarian management of Diana Mondino — to validate this line of surrender again with the Mondino-Lammy agreement in September 2024, deepening a model that the administration of Javier Milei has decided to strengthen.

Brazil and pragmatism in the face of the Argentine vacuum

While Argentina grapples with internal contradictions and sovereign renunciations, Brazil has decided to play its own cards. The Milei government's decision to withdraw from BRICS upon taking office effectively sidelined Argentina from the decision-making arena where Brazil now operates with such strength . The elevation of the Brazil-London relationship to the status of a Strategic Partnership erodes the continental solidarity bloc that was once the greatest obstacle to British colonial expansion.

With the adoption of the document, Brazil and the United Kingdom update their instrument of political dialogue, elevating it to the level of a strategic partnership, with a commitment to strengthen collaboration in key areas. pic.twitter.com/8FStIDMW1m

Although Brazil maintains symbolic gestures, such as the official cartography of the IBGE where the archipelago appears as Islas Malvinas and not as Malvina Islands on South American maps , the material reality tells a different story:

A scenario of regional isolation

The signing of this alliance for the period 2026-2030 leaves Argentina in a position of extreme weakness. If the largest regional power in South America agrees to common objectives with the occupying power, Argentina's claim ceases to be a continental cause and becomes an isolated bilateral conflict.

Thus, the UK's advance on the South Atlantic, financed by the plundering of our resources and now supported by Brazil's strategic ambiguity, is the direct result of what Argentina failed to do when it had the opportunity.